The medium-term bullish trend survives and the support at 1.1790 looks likely to be today’s pivotal point. As long as this level holds up, we are likely to see a rise in the price today. Arguably there is a lower high at about 1.1820 so this area might hold the price. However, there are no key resistance levels that stand out until 1.1880 so the price has room to rise. I think we are somewhat likely to see higher prices today.
After many failed attempts, the British Pound managed to clear the 1.3000 resistance against the US Dollar. GBP/USD is showing positive signs, but the bulls might face hurdles near 1.3180 and 1.3200. A low was formed near 1.2674 and the pair started a steady increase above the 1.2850 resistance. The pair even cleared the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3482 high to 1.2674 low. On the upside, the pair could struggle near 1.3120. The first major resistance is near the 1.3180 level, followed by the 1.3200 breakout zone. There is also a rising channel forming with support near 1.2980 on the same chart. If there is a downside break below the channel support, the pair could correct lower towards the 1.2920 support level. The main support seems to be forming near the 1.2850 level. Overall, GBP/USD is showing positive signs, but it could struggle near the 1.3200 zone.
USD/JPY stays neutral first and some more consolidation could be seen below 106.10 temporary top. Still, further rise is mildly in favor with 104.94 support intact. On the upside, break of 106.10 will target 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.
EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. But with 123.84 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor. Break of 125.08 will extend the rebound from 122.37 to retest 127.07 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 114.42. On the downside, however, break of 123.84 will turn bias back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23 instead.
AUD/USD is turned neutral with today’s retreat. But further rise is in favor as long as 0.7095 support holds. On the upside, above 0.7243 will extend the rebound from 0.7005 to retest 0.7413 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rise from 0.5506 to 0.7635 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 0.7095 will argue that corrective fall from 0.7413 is resuming through 0.7005.
Further fall is expected in USD/CAD with 1.3242 support turned resistance intact. Decline from 1.3418 would target a test on 1.2994 low. Larger fall from 1.4667 might be resuming. Firm break of 1.2994 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 1.4667 to 1.2994 from 1.3418 at 1.2384. On the upside, though, break of 1.3242 support turned resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias neutral first.
Our preference Short positions below 1925.00 with targets at 1900.00 & 1890.00 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 1925.00 look for further upside with 1933.00 & 1940.00 as targets. RSI advocates for further decline.
Our preference Short positions below 39.85 with targets at 39.05 & 38.60 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 39.85 look for further upside with 40.35 & 40.65 as targets.
The technical situation is little changed, with the price having moved by only a little. The nearest support level has been adjusted slightly, to 1.1790, from where the price now seems to be making a bullish turn following a normal bearish retracement.