There is no change in EUR / USD. Intraday bias is based on the negative side. Correction from 1.2348 is in progress for 1.2058 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.2063). Strong support should be seen there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2244 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.2348.
GBP/USD has broken the 1.3620 support level to start the recent negative correction. The pair traded below the 1.3500 level and the 100 simple moving average ( 4-hours). There was also a break below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3429 swing low to 1.3702 high. The next major support is near the 1.3430 level and the 200 simple moving average ( 4-hours). Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3365 support or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 1.3429 swing low to 1.3702 high.
On the upside, the previous support near the 1.3535 and 1.3550 levels could act as a strong resistance in the near term.
USD/JPY has risen well breaking above immediate trend resistance at 104.12 and now heads towards 104.50 or even 105.20 on the upside from where a rejection looks likely back towards 104-103.50. Immediate view is bullish while the Dollar Index trades strong.
AUD/USD is currently neutral. On the flip side, the 0.7641 support interval indicates a short-term benchmark in the event of a 4-hour MACD downtrend. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support first. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170.
USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.2629 short term bottom would target 1.2957 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 1.2629 low is now needed to confirm downside resumption. Otherwise, more consolidative trading should be seen with risk of stronger recovery.
WTI one-week-old rising trend line, near $52.55, offers immediate resistance to the quote ahead of the recent high surrounding $52.70. In a case where the energy bulls manage to refresh the multi-month top, February 2020 peak close to $54.70 should return to the charts. Overall, the crude oil prices are in an uptrend.
XAUUSD XAUUSD has bounced from 1820.00 and the rise look like a corrective one which could be capped at 1880.00 on the upside. We cannot rule out the possibility of a decline towards 1760.00-1740.00 in the long run. For at least the next two sessions there can be an immediate overview of a broad trade between 18 1820.00-1880.00
EURO broke the 1.2220 support, but stand above 1.2150 support. The EUR/USD failed to clear the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2256 high to 1.2152 low. Moreover, there is a crucial contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2205.
A clear break above the triangle resistance and 1.2220 could open the doors for a fresh increase. The next major resistance on the upside is near 1.2260, followed by 1.2280.If there is a downside break below the triangle support, there is risk of a breakdown below the 1.2150 support and the 100 SMA. In the stated case, the pair could grind lower towards the 1.2120 and 1.2100 support levels.
GBP/USD cools down the upside momentum, portrayed early in Asia while easing to 1.3560 ahead of Monday’s European open. The cable initially cheered the US dollar’s broad weakness on the passage of the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus.
From a technical perspective, bulls might now wait for a sustained move beyond the recent swing highs, around the 1.3620-25 region, before positioning for an extension of the recent upward trajectory. The momentum might then push the pair further towards the 1.3700 round-figure mark for the first time since May 2018. Any subsequent move up is more likely to confront a stiff resistance and pause near the 1.3740 horizontal resistance.
On the flip side, the key 1.3500 psychological mark might now protect the immediate downside and is closely followed by the 1.3480-75 horizontal support. Dips below the mentioned support levels might now be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 1.3435 region. However, some follow-through selling might prompt some long-unwinding and turn the pair vulnerable to slide back below the 1.3400 round-figure mark.
USD/JPY struggled to preserve modest Asian session gains amid sustained USD selling bias. The prevalent upbeat market mood undermined the safe-haven JPY and helped limit losses.The USD/JPY pair retreated nearly 25 pips from the Asian session swing highs and refreshed daily lows, around the 103.40 region in the last hour, albeit lacked follow-through selling.The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick on the first day of a new trading week, instead met with some fresh supply near the 103.65 region amid sustained US dollar selling bias.
AUD/USD regained positive traction for the third consecutive session on Monday amid weaker USD. News that Trump signed US aid bill added to the Brexit optimism and boosted investors’ confidence. A modest uptick in the US bond yields helped limit the USD fall and might cap gains amid thin liquidity.
Australia weathered the covid crisis better than most, sending the AUD higher by year-end. Momentum from the crisis and central bank action could extend the trend early in 2021. Relations with China are set to weigh on the aussie.
USD/CAD edged lower on the first day of a new week amid sustained USD selling bias. The prevalent upbeat market mood continued exerting pressure on the safe-haven USD. Weaker oil prices did little to undermine the loonie or extend any support to the major.
Markets in 2021 turn on the defeat of the pandemic and resumption of normal economic activity. Comparative statistics did not provide a rationale analysis for the USD/CAD 2020 ascent or decline. Pandemic risk premium extraction dominated USD/CAD price trading in 2020 but ended in July at 1.3400.
WTI crude fell by 2.05% last week, ending a seven-week winning run. At press time, a barrel of oil is changing hands near $47.90, representing a 0.7% drop on the day. The US Congress passed the much-anticipated economic relief bill last week.it has API gravity of 39.6 and sulphur content of 0.24% only. Its low density and low sulphur content gave it the name ‘light, sweet crude’ and enabled refiners to produce high yield of gasoline. Most WTI crude oil gets refined in the Midwest region of the country, with some more refined within the Gulf Coast region.
Gold probes intraday high after the week-start gap-up to $1,890.76. US President Trump is up for providing information on the covid relief bill. Risks remain sluggish amid concerns over US stimulus, year-end holidays. Gold price surged to all-time highs above $2,000 in 2020. Gold forecast remains bullish in 2021 as central banks keep committed to supporting recovery. XAU/USD price could push higher if it manages to break above $1,930.