- Posted on April 16, 2021
- News
- By FC Team
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The Australian Dollar traded cautiously lower after a slew of key Chinese economic data. GDP in the world’s second-largest economy increased 18.3% y/y in the first quarter, slightly missing the 18.5% estimate. Still, this did mark a record. But, it should be noted that these values are being compared to dismal outcomes at the onset of the coronavirus outbreak a year ago, resulting in a low base effect.Thus, the quarter-over-quarter reading could be a more insightful view of China’s recovery. This one disappointed further, clocking in at 0.6% versus 1.4% anticipated. It is also much slower than the 3.2% outcome in the fourth quarter of last year. Meanwhile, industrial production came in at 14.1% y/y in March versus 18.0% anticipated, also slightly weaker.Retail sales figures were more uplifting, coming in at 34.2% y/y in March versus 28.0% estimated. This could be a welcoming sign, especially for a country that is gradually shifting towards becoming a more consumption-oriented economy. Nevertheless, the data continues to highlight that the road ahead to recovery remains challenging, but recent estimates from the IMF hint that global growth could come in stronger-than-expected.China is Australia’s largest trading partner, so economic outcomes in the former can often imply knock-on impacts for the latter. Hence, the Australian Dollar can be quite sensitive to what happens in the world’s second-largest economy. Not to mention, AUD/USD can also be viewed as a more liquid proxy for market sentiment about Chinese economic trends than local assets.Heading into the remaining 24 hours, the growth-linked Aussie will likely continue to focus on risk trends and Treasury markets. On Thursday, AUD/USD gained amid falling bond yields in the US despite strong retail sales figures. Ongoing dovish rhetoric from the Fed is likely cooling 2022 rate hike bets. With that in mind, the scope for a rosy University of Michigan Sentiment report to push yields higher during the Wall Street session ahead may be low, paving the way for a strong weekly finish for the Aussie.By dailyfx