- Posted on October 25, 2024
- News
- By FC Team
- 177 Views
By Jamie McGeeverORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -Last month Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues were lauded for starting their policy easing cycle with a half percentage-point rate cut that many said would help secure the U.S. economy's much-vaunted 'soft landing'. But that cut was followed by a hot September jobs report, featuring the third-largest jump in payrolls ever after the initial cut in a Fed hiking cycle. Since then, Treasury bond yields, inflation expectations and the so-called 'term premium' have all spiked. The Fed is now coming under increasing fire for potentially committing the ultimate central banking sin: a policy error. But history suggests this charge is far too premature.OVERREACTION?Since the jumbo rate cut on Sept. 18, there has been a sharp rise in long-dated bond yields, inflation expectations and the term premium - the compensation investors demand for buying longer-dated U.S. government bonds rather than rolling over shorter term ones. This likely reflects investors' worries about fiscal profligacy as much as overly dovish monetary policy, given that former President Donald Trump has appeared to regain ground in the presidential election race while touting a host of potentially budget-busting plans. Still, the market moves all began around the date of the Fed's rate cut.And they're significant. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group note that of the 35 times the Fed has cut rates since 1994, this is the third-largest rise in the 10-year yield, behind only those seen in November 2001 and June 2008.source: investing.com