Gold jumped after US retail sales rose less than expected in June which weighed on US Treasury yields and the greenback.Even though headline retail sales came in below expectations, underlying consumer spending appeared to be strong, thanks to a tight labour market. The mixed retail sales report follows softer US CPI and PPI data. However, broader economic data, as measured by the Economic Surprise Index, continues to be solid – the US ESI hit a two-year high earlier this month before retreating slightly.The outsized response in the US dollar to softer inflation and retail sales, which still portrayed a resilient economy, suggests the market is in no mood to buy the dollar amid a growing perception that the Fed is close to wrapping up its tightening cycle.Rate futures are showing a 99% chance of a quarter percentage point hike at the July 25-26 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, the market is pricing in rate cuts starting around mid-2024, with nearly 5 rate cuts by the end of next year. The market’s expectations contrast with the Fed’s projected two rate hikes before the year-end and no rate cuts until 2025. Daily FX