- Posted on June 10, 2024
- News
- By FC Team
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LONDON(Reuters) - Financial markets are turning their focus to when major central banks will start cutting interest rates, calling time on the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades.The European Central Bank on Thursday left rates unchanged but nodded at inflation easing, a day after Canada left rates unchanged and said it was too early to consider rate cuts.Here's how big central banks stand, ranked in terms of the rate hikes in the recent tightening cycle.1) UNITED STATESMarkets have pared back Federal Reserve rate cut bets given hawkish central bank speak and a resilient economy.Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Wednesday he still expects rate cuts, but inflation progress was "not assured."Traders price in roughly 90 basis points (bps) of U.S. rate cuts this year versus 150 bps at the start of the year, with a first move around June.The Fed, which meets later in March, held rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% in January.2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates unchanged in February, but toned down its hawkish stance, as the inflation outlook becomes more balanced.Its forecasts suggested a lessening chance of another hike in 2024 and the kiwi dollar tumbled as a result. Markets don't expect the first policy easing until November.3) BRITAINThe Bank of England is one to watch. It's currently expected to ease rates later than the Fed and the ECB, but some investors reckon a weaker growth outlook could prompt an early move, while others note the BoE could deliver larger rate cuts overall.UK rates are at nearly 16-year highs and the BoE has softened its stance about when it might cut them, while one of its policymakers cast the first vote for a reduction in borrowing costs since 2020. Traders anticipate a first cut in August, having pushed that back from June at the start of 2024.4) CANADAThe Bank of Canada kept its key overnight rate steady at 5% on Wednesday and said underlying inflation meant it was too early to consider a cut.No surprise then that the Canadian dollar rallied against the U.S. dollar afterwards. Notably, markets still see June as the most likely month for a first rate cut - unchanged from earlier.5) EURO ZONEThe ECB kept borrowing costs at record highs on Thursday, but took a first, small step towards lowering them, saying inflation was easing faster than it anticipated only a few months ago.Markets latched onto that, with traders pricing in 100 bps worth of rate cuts this year, versus 90 bps before the decision.June is still seen as the most likely start date for ECB easing, market pricing suggested.6) NORWAYNorway could be a late mover on rate cuts. Markets agree - traders price a quarter-point move in September.Norges Bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.50% in January and said the cost of borrowing would likely stay at that level "for some time ahead".7) AUSTRALIA