Market Hopes Are High That Big Central Banks Will Cut Rates Around Mid-Year

  • Posted on June 20, 2024
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LONDON(Reuters) - Financial markets are turning their focus to when major central banks will start cutting interest rates, calling time on the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades.The European Central Bank on Thursday left rates unchanged but nodded at inflation easing, a day after Canada left rates unchanged and said it was too early to consider rate cuts.Here's how big central banks stand, ranked in terms of the rate hikes in the recent tightening cycle.1) UNITED STATESMarkets have pared back Federal Reserve rate cut bets given hawkish central bank speak and a resilient economy.Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Wednesday he still expects rate cuts, but inflation progress was "not assured."Traders price in roughly 90 basis points (bps) of U.S. rate cuts this year versus 150 bps at the start of the year, with a first move around June.The Fed, which meets later in March, held rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% in January.2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates unchanged in February, but toned down its hawkish stance, as the inflation outlook becomes more balanced.Its forecasts suggested a lessening chance of another hike in 2024 and the kiwidollar tumbled as a result. Markets don't expect the first policy easing until November.3) BRITAINThe Bank of England is one to watch. It's currently expected to ease rates later than the Fed and the ECB, but some investors reckon a weaker growth outlook could prompt an early move, while others note the BoE could deliver larger rate cuts overall.

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